IT之家 10 月 1 日消息，据彭博社报道，受全球人工智能需要持续拉动半导体出口的推动，韩国 9 月出口延续迅猛增势，进一步增强外界预期：这个高度依赖贸易的经济体有能力承受更高的利率水平。
韩国海关当地时间周四发布的数据表明，剔除工作日差异影响后，9 月出口同比增幅达到 104.9%；出口总额达到 1,209 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 8,120.71 亿元人民币），创下历史新高。而该月前 20 天的出口货值此前就已经刷新该时段的历史纪录。
韩国海关部门同时表示，2026 年前九个月韩国出口总额达到创纪录的 8,145 亿美元（现汇率约合 5.47 万亿元人民币），首次突破 8,000 亿美元（现汇率约合 5.37 万亿元人民币）关口。未经调整口径下，9 月出口同比上涨 83.5%；8 月修正后的增幅为 68.7%。进口同比增长 26%，当月贸易顺差接近 500 亿美元（现汇率约合 3,358.44 亿元人民币）。
半导体依旧是本轮出口繁荣的核心引擎，芯片出口同比猛增 263%，达到 603 亿美元（现汇率约合 4,050.28 亿元人民币）。计算机机型出口飙升 435%，石油制品出口上涨 72%；汽车出口则下滑 5%。
值得一提的是，今年 9 月受 9 月 24‑26 日秋夕假期影响，实际工作日有所减少；而去年的秋夕假期落在 10 月。这种日历效应会干扰同比数据比较，但即便存在这一因素，出口依旧取得大幅增长。
道富银行亚太宏观策略师崔智旭（Jiuk Choi）表示：“毫无疑问，9 月的出口数据与贸易余额都远远高于市面普遍预期以及笔者此前的预估。”他认为受基数效应影响，从第四季度开始出口增速将会有所回落。
不过他补充称，全球持续扩张的 AI 相关投资，以及高带宽内存芯片售价上行，依旧会对出口形成支撑。
该组数据表明，直至第三季度末，韩国的贸易动能依旧颇为强劲。这也印证了韩国央行的判断：本国经济可以抵御借贷成本走高，同时也为后续进一步收紧货币政策给出依据。
早在 8 月，韩国央行就将基准利率上调 25 个基点至 3%，这是韩国央行连续第二次加息。此前经济增长强于预期，且核心通胀持续存在，促使政策制定者提前采取行动。
得益于全球 AI 建设热潮带动出口与投资向好，韩国央行还将 2026 年经济增速预期由 2.6% 上调至 3.3%。该行六个月利率预期的中位数为 3.25%，暗示后续还将有一次 25 基点的加息。不过韩国央行行长申铉松（Shin Hyun Song）表示，该数值意味着在连续两次加息之后，后续的紧缩步伐将会趋于平缓。
崔智旭预计第三季度环比增速大致符合韩国央行给出的 0.3% 的预测。随着 AI 产业热度持续走高，他判断 11 月央行会小幅上调经济增速以及核心通胀预测。
摩根大通提出一项风险警示：如果由芯片带动的经济增长推高通胀，同时金融市面没有浮现显著压力，那么利率或许还有进一步上行的必要。这家华尔街机构预判韩国央行将分别在 11 月、次年 2 月以及 5 月加息，最终基准利率上调至 3.75%。
芯片景气热潮同样正在改变韩国政府的财政状况。受益于半导体企业盈利、芯片厂商派发的特别股息、股市回暖以及消费复苏，韩国预计本年度国家税收收入将创下新高，达到 478.6 万亿韩元（现汇率约合 2.37 万亿元人民币），较 2025 年增长 28%。
通胀仍是韩国央行重点考量的另一大难题。8 月总体居民消费物价同比增速上升至 3.1%；剔除波动较大的食品与能源之后的核心通胀攀升至 3.4%，说明底层的物价压力依旧顽固。
出口持续向好同时改善了韩国的对外收支状况，有望推动韩元继续走强。韩元升值有助于抑制输入型通胀，也给政策制定者在下一次加息时点的挑选上留出一定回旋空间。
分出口目的地来看，对中国出口同比增长 123%；对美国出口大幅跃升 137%；对印度出口增长 50%，对欧盟出口增长 21%。
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On October 1, IT之家 reported that Bloomberg is forecasting continued strong economic growth in South Korea, driven by the ongoing global demand for semiconductors. This trend suggests the country can withstand higher interest rates.
Customs data released on Thursday shows that exports in September grew by 104.9% year-on-year, excluding the impact of the fewer working days. The total export value was $120.9 billion, setting a new record for the month.
For the first nine months of 2026, the total export value reached a record $814.5 billion, marking the first time it has surpassed the $800 billion threshold. The unadjusted September growth was 83.5%, compared to 68.7% in August. Imports increased by 26%, resulting in a trade surplus of nearly $50 billion.
The semiconductor industry is the main driver of this growth, with chip exports jumping 263% to $60.3 billion. Other significant gains include a 435% increase in computer exports and a 72% increase in oil products.
Despite the strong growth, the data is complicated by the fact that September had fewer working days due to the Chuseok holiday, while the holiday fell in October last year. This calendar effect makes the year-on-year comparison difficult, but the growth is still considered very strong.
Strategist Jiuk Choi noted that the export performance was much better than expected and predicted that growth rates would moderate in the fourth quarter due to the high baseline set this year.
Choi added that the global AI investment boom and the rising prices of high-bandwidth memory chips will continue to support exports.
The data indicates that South Korea's economic momentum remains high, supporting the government's view that the economy can handle increased borrowing costs and allowing for further policy tightening if necessary.
In August, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 points to 3%, the second consecutive increase. The move was driven by stronger-than-expected economic growth and persistent core inflation.
The bank has also raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, thanks to the strong export and investment performance.
While the bank has signaled a slower pace of rate increases following the initial hikes, some analysts, like those at JP Morgan, suggest that further increases may be needed if the hot chip market drives up inflation without causing financial distress.
The chip boom is also positively affecting government revenue, with tax income expected to reach a record 478.6 trillion won for the year, a 28% increase over 2025.
Inflation remains a concern, with the CPI rising to 3.1% and core inflation reaching 3.4% in August.
The strong export performance is also helping to improve South Korea's current account balance and strengthening the won, which should help keep imported inflation in check.
Looking at specific markets, exports to China increased by 123%, to the U.S. by 137%, to India by 50%, and to the EU by 21%.
By export destination, shipments to China increased by 123% year-over-year; shipments to the U.S. surged by 137%; shipments to India grew by 50%, and shipments to the EU increased by 21%.