台积电产能吃紧:曝高通与三星重启 2nm 代工谈判,骁龙 8 Elite Gen 6 订单能否落地仍不确定TSMC Capacity Tightening: Qualcomm and Samsung Reportedly Restart 2nm Foundry Negotiations, Uncertainty Remains Over Whether Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Orders Will Be Secured


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台积电产能吃紧:曝高通与三星重启 2nm 代工谈判,骁龙 8 Elite Gen 6 订单能否落地仍不确定
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IT之家 9 月 15 日消息,由于台积电产能不足,再加上地缘政治紧张,高通新一代旗舰移动平台骁龙 8 Elite Gen 6 的代工策略可能迎来重大转变。

韩国《朝鲜日报》 9 月 13 日报道称,高通正与三星电子已重新就 2nm 先进制程代工展开深入磋商。这意味着骁龙 8 Elite Gen 6 或将不再由台积电独家代工,而是采取双代工模式。

据知情人士透露,潜在思路可能对骁龙 8 Elite Gen 6 系列开展分级代工规划。其中,对规格和能效要求更严苛的 Extreme 高端版本预计仍将交由台积电制造;但部分标准版型号或特定规格则有望使用三星 2nm 工艺生产。

《朝鲜日报》指出,三星电子近年来在改善制程良率与热管理维度持续发力,虽然仍不及台积电,但其工艺表现和能效提高为重新赢回高通订单创造了前提条件。

良率数据是衡量三星能否承接订单的关键指标。据称,三星 2nm GAA 工艺良率已从 2026 年初的不足 50% 攀升至 70% 以上,而高通对大规模量产设定的良率基准线约为 70%(台积电 2nm 良率则已达 80% 至 90%)。

产能分配是促使高通考虑双代工的另一因素。台积电计划到今年第四季度将 2nm 月产能提高至 6 万片,但苹果已锁定至少一半以上产能用于 A20 Pro 和 M6 芯片。台积电 3nm 产能也已被英伟达、AMD 等客户预订至 2027 年。若高通无法从台积电取得足量 2nm 产能,三星的参与可起到备份作用。

消息人士称,双方当下的主要分歧集中在售价层面。高通正寻求更低的代工报价,但三星维度态度趋于强硬。在此之前,三星已对 4nm 和 5nm 订单提价 10% 至 15%,在取得特斯拉、博通等大客户后,三星评估合约条款的余地更为充裕。加之双方当下讨论的订单量相对有限,三星不愿给出折扣也在情理之中。

回顾以往,由于三星良品率与发热难题,高通自 2022 年起将旗舰级骁龙处理器的量产全面转向台积电。不过,随着台积电先进制程报价水涨船高、产能持续高度紧绷,加之半导体产业链对分散制造风险、降低供应链集中度的现实考量,高通正重新审视与三星晶圆代工部门合作的可能。最能说明这一点的是,高通 CEO 克里斯蒂亚诺 · 安蒙此前曾前往韩国,与三星高层开展实质性接触。

按照计划,高通将于当地时间 9 月 22 日至 24 日在夏威夷举办 2026 骁龙峰会,预计发布骁龙 8 Elite Gen 6 系列。代工分配的最终细则是否会在峰会期间进一步明确。截至发稿,双方均未就磋商进展发布官方说明。

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IT Home reported on September 15 that due to insufficient TSMC capacity and geopolitical tensions, Qualcomm's new flagship mobile platform, Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6, may undergo significant changes in its foundry strategy.

According to a report by the Korean Chosun Ilbo on September 13, Qualcomm is re-engaging in deep negotiations with Samsung Electronics regarding 2nm advanced process fabrication. This suggests the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 might no longer be exclusively produced by TSMC but instead adopt a dual-foundry model.

Insiders reveal that the potential plan involves tiered fabrication for the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 series. The high-end extreme version, which demands higher specifications and energy efficiency, is expected to remain with TSMC; however, standard versions or specific configurations may be produced using Samsung's 2nm process.

The Chosun Ilbo notes that Samsung Electronics has been actively improving process yield and thermal management in recent years. While still lagging behind TSMC, its enhanced performance and energy efficiency provide the necessary conditions to regain Qualcomm orders.

Yield data is a critical metric for determining Samsung's capability to handle these orders. Samsung's 2nm GAA process yield has increased from below 50% in early 2026 to over 70%, approaching Qualcomm's baseline requirement for mass production (TSMC's 2nm yield is 80-90%).

Capacity allocation is another driving factor for the dual-foundry approach. TSMC plans to increase its 2nm monthly capacity to 60,000 wafers by Q4, but Apple has already secured the majority of this capacity for its A20 Pro and M6 chips. Additionally, Nvidia and AMD have booked TSMC's 3nm capacity through 2027. If Qualcomm cannot secure sufficient 2nm capacity from TSMC, Samsung can act as a backup supplier.

Sources indicate the primary dispute between Qualcomm and Samsung revolves around pricing. Qualcomm is seeking lower fabrication costs, but Samsung is holding firm. Previously, Samsung increased prices for 4nm and 5nm orders by 10-15% and now has leverage from securing contracts with Tesla and Broadcom, reducing the need for significant discounts.

Historically, due to issues with yield and heat dissipation, Qualcomm shifted production of top-tier Snapdragons to TSMC in 2022. However, rising TSMC costs, tight capacity, and the industry-wide push to diversify supply chains are prompting Qualcomm to reconsider its partnership with Samsung. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon's recent visit to Korea for talks with Samsung leadership further supports this.

Qualcomm is scheduled to hold the 2026 Snapdragon Summit in Hawaii from September 22-24, where the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 series is expected to be announced. The final details of the fabrication distribution may be revealed during this event. Neither party has issued an official statement on the negotiations as of the report's publication.

TSMC Capacity Tightening: Qualcomm and Samsung Reportedly Restart 2nm Foundry Negotiations, Uncertainty Remains Over Whether Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Orders Will Be Secured

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